Intuition in Pregnancy Update

2008_5_15.carnac Today I completed twenty trials of people with dreams/intuitions of fetal gender. 14/20 were correct, giving us 70% so far. This sample size is statistically meaningless. I’m not sure how many I would need before it becomes statistically meaningful at the rate of 70% (p<.05) (anyone know?). Although I realize it means nothing this early into it, 70% is the hit rate found in the other studies. The control group is at 10/25 or 40%.

Alright, I finally found a probability calculator online. The odds of getting at least 14 or more correct out of 20 are only 5.76% or 1 in 17.3. If you did 100 trials and the hit rate was *still* 70%, the odds of getting 70 or more correct out of 100 would be p= .000039 or 1 in 25,641. More than miss Z! To reach p<.05 you would only need about 60/100 or more.

If you did 200 trials and still got 70% or more, the odds against chance would be 1 in 132,802,124- approaching roughly half the evidence it would take to prove to Michael Shermer that we survive death!


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